Avalanche vs. Maple Leafs NHL Pick – December 4th

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Sustaining momentum was a challenge recently as it turned out to be a bothersome 1-3 night with my four free NHL picks. The games were close but we ended up on the wrong side too often.
The loss came from Minnesota Wild and the Florida Panthers. The Panthers built a 2-0 lead after 20 and came out of the gate. They ended up outshooting the Wild by 20 shots (46-26), possessed 60.82percent of the attempted shot share, 61.90percent of the scoring opportunity share and 60% of the high-danger chances for and lost the game 4-2. This made no sense and those sort of stats are going to net you wins far more often than not. Difficult one here at -125.
Another loss came between Philadelphia Flyers and the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Maple Leafs outplayed that the Flyers for a lot of their first two periods and tied the game at 1-1 midway through the third. From there on out, nevertheless, it was Flyers since they scored two quick objectives, an empty-netter, also somehow two goals in the game’s final 40 seconds to end up beating the Maple Leafs 6-1, though it wasn’t even close to this for about 90% of the match. It’s a loss at -117.
Another tough loss came our way between Bruins and the Carolina Hurricanes. I said at the write-up with this game which the Bruins flirted with risk in tracking in the third period so much. It turned out to be a score more than 55 minutes to this match, although they never trailed in this one. In authentic Bruins manner, they scored two goals less than two minutes apart and dealt us a loss at +134.
Our night was somewhat salvaged using a winner between Ottawa Senators and the Vancouver Canucks. A lead started and the 5-2 Canucks us a regulation winner to game at -110 chances also the Senators made it 4-2 early in the second.
However, we and a frustrating and rough night fared , particularly in that Panthers game.
Let’s look to get back on the winning path on tonight four-game NHL program.
Season Record: 36-32-1
Units: +2.63
Let us take a look at the NHL pick comprising the Avalanche and Maple Leafs from Scotiabank Arena in Toronto!
Now let’s take a look at each of those clubs until I get into my final selection!
Both of these teams met on November 23rd in what resulted as a Maple Leafs outshooting Toronto 37-27 at the night back in Colorado. Since then, however, the Avalanche have steamrolled two opponents spanning three matches.
Before dominating the Blackhawks in a home-and-home weekend series with a combined 12-5 score at the 2 games they knocked off the Edmonton Oilers.
Now, they’ll hit the street for the first of three games against a Maple Leafs team enjoying the second-half of a back-to-back after falling that contest last night in Philly.
The Avalanche enter this one wearing the NHL’s third-ranked road offense where they’ve scored 3.43 goals each game this year. It would appear that they have been blessed to create offense, according to the numbers.
When we add in their 22nd-ranked road power play just 13.5% and their third-ranked road crime seems to be a fraudulent number, especially when they rank 23rd in shots per game to the road at 28.8.
Defensively, the Avs have been good on the street in permitting 2.86 goals per game — good for eighth league broad. However they rank 21st in shots against per game away from home with 33.6 and therefore are being outshot by an average of 4.9 shots per game on the road.
They have been in a position to stop goals away from home because of their sixth-ranked road save percentage of .915.
Getting the nod in goal tonight for the Avs will soon be Philipp Grubauer using Pavel Francouz likely starting the tomorrow night in Montreal’s second-half.
Grubauer enabled four first-period aims about the 23rd of November to those Maple Leafs, but has allowed four goals great for a .918 Svper cent. However, he’s coming off a .897 Sv% in allowing three goals on 29 shots on Saturday into the Blackhawks, outing.
Grubauer was strong on the street using a 2.86 GAA and .912 S% to go alongside a 4-3-1 record.
The Maple Leafs played well and controlled the puck for a lot of last night’s match of their first two phases before it got in the second-half of this third period.
It was the second game in which they’ve mustered on offense and their loss in the last 3 games.
Since star winger Mitch Marner was activated from long-term injured reserve that offense gets a rise tonight , however.
For the first time all season, the Maple Leafs’ roster is fully intact as they look to get their offense going against this Avalanche team tonight.
They have struggled to score targets regularly in the home where they position 18th together with 3.14 goals a match, among the few clubs in the league that has scored more on the road than they have in the home. This despite possessing home amounts that are innovative and positive ownership , for the large part.
At 5v5, the Maple Leafs rank eighth with a 53.18% CF% in home, 16th using a 52.71percent SCFpercent however their 29th-ranked 47.93percent is the culprit in not creating sufficient crime at home this year. Their 99.9 PDO at home tells us they’ve scored about as far as they deserve to at home.
Defensively, the Maple Leafs position 21st in allowing 2.93 goals per game at home this year and also their 32.4 shots against per game in your home is tied to 27th. Losing the opportunity share that is high-danger has hurt them to be sure, although they control the possession in your home.
It appears as Frederik Andersen is very likely to begin this 1 tonight after taking the loss in Philadelphia last 26, we will observe a tonight.
Andersen played for the majority of the game before the Maple Leafs allowed a few breakaways following the Flyers played with an empty-net goal in the game.
Needless to say, his December did not return to a start.
The 30-year-old owns a 2.68 GAA and .914 Sv% across 13 home outings on the summer and turned aside 34 of 37 Avalanche shots in earning the win in Colorado a few weeks ago.
We must consider them, with the numbers that are innovative making their way to the game. There’s a reason why they are a portion of each team’s front office at this point, although we do not need to rely solely on them.
If we pay attention they are screaming regression for the Avs’ road offense. They rank third in this department on the surface, but they sport below-average possession amounts, scoring opportunity numbers, high-danger chance amounts and their PDO tells us they have been the luckiest street offense in the NHL this season.
They’ve been good on the road defensively as well, but if you’re being outchanced heavily, either in scoring chances and high-danger scoring opportunities, it’s not a fantastic recipe to remain in the league’s top-10 road defenses. Neither is being outshot about the road on the surface.
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The Avs are fitter with Mikko Rantanen’s yield and Nathan MacKinnon is a MVP-caliber participant. They’re a huge reason why the Avs outperform their innovative numbers.
The Maple Leafs possess some decent but unspectacular innovative numbers at home, but they have played one home game beneath Keefe and his puck-possession philosophy this season. Their season was a story of two seasons between Babcock and Keefe and that I think we have to take their amounts that are season-long with a huge grain of salt.
The back-to-back is tough and history informs is battle when playing two nights. I like this group at home tonight.
They’ll be motivated to play in front of the goalie after a bad third time and we must keep in mind this team is just beaten by them .
Getting back Marner with assistance the crime and the power play. Grubauer’s inconsistency does not bode well against this offense that is fully-healthy.
Give me the home side on the tonight.

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