General election 2019: How are the main poltiical party leaders expected to fare on December 12th?
It ought to be, if any chair is assumed to be assured for a specific political party.
But just how likely are each of the primary party leaders to keep their constituency?
We had a look into the stronghold of all both Islington North of Jeremy Corbyn, Boris Johnson’s chair of Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Jo Swinson’s chair in Dunbartonshire East along with Caroline Lucas’ constituency of Brighton Pavilion.
No surprises here, Johnson is favorite to win his own constituency of Uxbridge and South Ruislip and is priced to achieve that.
That is an implied probability of 85.7% it votes Tory. Elsewhere, Labour are the next biggest challengers at 4/1, followed closely by Liberal Democrats (25/1).
Bookmakers don’t find this seat with Corbyn and the Labour costly at 1/33 to retain the chair, as a remote contest.
That is a percentage likelihood of 97.1% which Islington North remains red. Elsewhere, the nearest challengers would be the Liberal Democrats.????
The seat of swinson is slightly more precarious, along with her Lib Dem party priced to be elected at Dunbartonshire East.
The SNP would be another nearest challengers at 11/4, in what should essentially be a race.
Elsewhere, the national party and Labour party are equally 50/1.
The only constituency in the united kingdom is Brighton Pavilion, where Lucas sits.
With Brighton penned as a huge stronghold for the Greens,” Lucas a huge favored to retain her seat and the sole chair.
It seems all but sure she’ll hold onto her chair.