Memphis vs Cincinnati College Football Week 14 Betting Prediction
On the surface, it’s difficult to believe Memphis is favorites within Cincinnati this Friday.
Both G5 college football powerhouses have dominated, if on crime (Memphis) or shield (Cinci). The Tigers position only one spot over the Bearcats in the College Football Playoff ranks. They’d set up a rematch from the AAC Championship.
However, the Bearcats have trailed away in recent weeks. They’ve compiled a total of 140 yards within the last two months and conquer two sub-.500 teams this past month.
Memphis, meanwhile, has won its past five games by almost 20 points typically. Including a 39-point street thumping of USFa team which gave the Bearcats all sorts of matches.
The Tigers received strong performances out of Brady White (30-7 TD-INT) across the board. His 180.0 passer rating is 7th overall in the country and best among G5 QBs. But RB Kenneth Gant has gone 97+ yards rushing in each of the last nine matches, which will keep any defense imagining.
This includes a Bearcats squad ranked 4th in earnings 20th and speed in opponents’ touchdown rate.
Memphis is the team that requires the triumph, watching as Cinci has clinched their division. Navy could still sneak in over this conference’s Memphis on the West side. That may raise one which can be found around BetNow the line, and a number of other books that are online.
Following is a break down of each team, to prove whether the spread should be as big as possible.
Memphis’ defense goes undetected due to its offensive prowess. However, this is a squad that has at least been reliable against offenses.
Surethe SMU game was a shootout, however Navy (26th in FEI crime ) and Tulane (30th) were held to 23 and 17 points, respectively. They can be a little hit or miss, such as seeing 109th-ranked Temple 30 points along with Tulsa (76th) 41.
They may get a break with all the Bearcats offense. They rank in the top 50 in efficacy, and also played with a Temple defense last week that defeat Memphis early in the year. But they have become a unit that is nimble.
They have not had over 200 yards. Desmond Ridder’s 51.7% completion percentage the last seven games is dreadful. If accumulated over a full season, It’d rank him 103rd out of 106 QBs.
With Memphis 2nd in the league in passing yards allowed and defensive pass efficiency. Just three teams passed to get a 60% or better completion percentage, so the Bearcats’ game should be next to nonexistent in such a one.
They will need to lean on RB Michael Warren II, who is carried of the offensive load using 50 carries within the previous two games. While the Memphis d-line isn’t spectacular, particularly in short-yardage situations (104th in power achievement ).
However, the Bearcats are perhaps right now. Averaging 3.6 yards per play the previous two weeks won’t make them very far. Not with Memphis’ offense putting up over 47 points per game.
Their only real hope is that they can take advantage of short-yardage conducts to control the clock and also to coax Memphis to penalties. The Tigers position 118th in episodes per match.
This is power versus strength. An offense that is scored over 40 points in all three matches, and a defense that’s held seven 11 opponents to below 20 points.
It’s better to diagnose exactly what these units are good and how much value to put into their dominance.
While Memphis is in the top 20 in each efficiency variable and 7th overall in FEI offense, their one defect is turnover rate (69th). Their offensive line isn’t rewarded for their achievement on the floor. Put at 105th in power success 98th in lineup lawns, and 94th in stuff speed, it is clear Memphis does not rely on a ton of intermediate gains. They rely on a explosive ones.
They could continue to keep this near, if Cincinnati can remove run. They’re typical in sophisticated metrics across their defensive front but have the speed and versatility overall to challenge Memphis.
They’ve allowed just 3.26 YPA around the floor over the previous five games. To put that in perspective, the average rushing YPA from the FBS is 5.0. On the typical 38.8 conveys they’ve enabled in this span, that could come to a gap of 68 yards.
So they might place 35th in rush yards . But their YPA positions over that five-game stretch at the top 15. They have only allowed a touchdown run on every 57.75 carries during the second half of this season. The top rushing defense in the entire Team of Five, san Diego State, gives up one every 38 carries.
QB Brady White will have to be to pull off, That said. He has to remain out of trouble using INTs. He has seven season, or just one for every 43 passes. But that is a tremendous average against a defense ranked 7th at INTs.
This is a Tigers crime inhabiting the rate that is top-7 in touchdown , volatile drives, and ownership efficacy. On one hand, the UCF offense was held by the Bearcats to 20 points below their season point total. On the flip side though, the average opponent of Cinci is 75th in scoring, with UCF and Ohio State the ones rated in the top-60.
Cinci’s defense extends from letting 13.3 PPG to 27.8 PPG from home/road splits. Although the second sees a spike because of Ohio State (42 points), it’s also that way due to lowly East Carolina (43).
In a matchup between volatile and sturdy, Memphis will triumph. If the Bearcats D places up a similar functionality like against the Knights, then they don’t have the offense.
The only breakout performances since September of cinci come against teams in defense. Provided that a team keeps from Warren II wearing down them, there’s not much to deal with differently. Off of any game, this crime won’t violate the lid With no single TD over 17 yards in any of their past four matches.
They were held by the two greatest defenses to perform this year to Memphis . And Cincinnati is a significant amount better than Temple and Navy . They’re the one that creates the most turnover difficulties, and also the most consistent shield that the Tigers have played.
However, with the momentum they have in any offensive spot at the moment, on top of the demand for the triumph, can help Memphis pull away. Even if the Tigers are held to the least amount of points they have had since their opener, then they will still win by two touchdowns.
That dysfunctional things are through the air for Cinci on offense.
Prediction: Memphis 34, Cincinnati 17